Weekly Crop Commentary - 12/12/2025

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Another slow and uneventful week in the grain markets. The trend this week was negative and red, as there are no new stories to boost markets. We are seeing China slowly book soybeans, but those sales were already priced into the market during the big rally in November and aren’t large enough to spur positive movement. The rumor is that China is going to fulfill their 12 MMT commitment “this crop year” and not before the end of 2025 or February, as many originally thought.

The December WASDE report was also fairly uneventful, showing an increase in corn exports by 125 million bushels but no changes to soybeans or wheat.

Stay safe and warm this weekend! We are expecting to get some snow beginning Saturday afternoon. It doesn’t look like it will stick around very long, as it is supposed to warm up next week and, sadly, stay above freezing through Christmas. I’m hoping that changes and we see a white Christmas this year.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

Markets were quiet again this week as corn stayed stagnant and beans trended lower.

Corn exports continue to be the standout story. As of the 11/13 report, we’re running about 5% ahead of USDA projections. The March–May corn spread has tightened as parts of the eastern belt work through nearby tightness and strong demand from Mexico. With recent basis improvements locally, we’re inching closer to that $4.50 cash range. If you’ve got any targets for unsold bin corn or are looking ahead to next fall, feel free to reach out, and we can talk through the options.

As for soybeans… not much good to say. Export sales are roughly 25% behind pace, and beans finished the week about 30¢ lower.

We’re looking at roughly 3 inches of snow in the forecast, so stay warm, and have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon! The market is seeing red as we close out the week. The premium added to the soybean market on the hopes of China purchasing beans is fizzling. When the presidents met at the end of October, it was said that China would buy 12 mmt. The White House fact sheet states the end of the calendar year as the deadline, another source says the end of February, and yet another source ambiguously said, “end of the growing season.” As of now, China has bought less than 3.3 mmt since that verbal agreement. Quite a disappointment, in my opinion, even with a moving target deadline.

On the corn side, the March chart has been in a tight window since Thanksgiving. With local basis continuing to improve, Marysville saw the cash corn price break above 4.50 on Thursday. USDA released the monthly S&D this week, increasing corn demand with higher export expectations, but we are still left with a hefty carryout of over 2 billion bushels. That leaves us with the highest carryout-to-use ratio since the 2019/20 crop year. Plenty of corn is out there across the country.

As we wrap up 2025, I want to thank you for your business and camaraderie. This was my 25th harvest with the company, and I look forward to serving you in the new year. Have a wonderful Christmas and New Year’s with your friends and family!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

Happy Friday!

We are now heading into the second half of December, but looking back, it was another week without much action in the futures markets. The USDA December WASDE report was released on Tuesday at noon with little change to note. The market had little reaction to what the report told us. Corn was up about 5¢ afterward, but nothing significant. The USDA raised corn export expectations to 3.200 billion bushels, up from November’s 3.075 billion. U.S. soybean and wheat balance sheets were left unchanged in December’s update, keeping things relatively quiet on that front, as well.

Early in the week, Trump announced the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, totalling $12 billion to be distributed to eligible farmers across America. Farmers must ensure accurate acreage reports by December 19th to be eligible. $11 billion of the program will be designated for row crop farmers and distributed by late February 2026. The remaining $1 billion will be used for farmers who grow specialty crops.

China is expected to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans, but they’re only about halfway through that volume, as of now. It remains unclear when those tons were required to be purchased by, though it’s now evident they won’t reach the full amount before the calendar year ends.

It looks like we are expected to get a decent amount of snow over the weekend, along with cold temperatures, to add to the winter weather we have been experiencing so far this month. I hope you stay safe and warm this weekend!